TB vs LAD prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 4.5 - TB 3.5. LAD is favored with a 57.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
LAD
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADTB
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,410 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
245
LAD
346
Projected
LAD 4.5 — TB 3.5
Actual
LAD 5 — TB 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF37%95 mph17% whiff
CH29%87 mph34% whiff
SL20%88 mph28% whiff
Shohei Ohtani R
LAD
FF45%98 mph26% whiff
ST30%85 mph37% whiff
CU11%75 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.7% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
-11.0% EV
+140
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-6.5% EV
-123
ML HOME
-5.0% EV
-156
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+2.6% EV
+142
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-2.4% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.7 runs
30.3% win
LAD F5
2.5 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
61.7%
YRFI
38.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Andy Pages LAD19.2%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Mookie Betts LAD18.1%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Dalton Rushing LAD17.3%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Shohei Ohtani
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Teoscar Hernandez LF10-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE
LAD is heavily favored (model 57.9%, market 61%, -5% edge to home team), and the market has correctly priced this. Ohtani (1.14 ERA, B+ stuff 0.717) vs McClanahan (3.49 ERA, B stuff) is massive pitcher mismatch favoring LAD, and market prices it fairly. NRFI edge (2.0%, 59.3% prob) is marginal. Skip ML/spreads; only viable is NRFI at 2% edge if you love it.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch extreme: Ohtani (1.14 Bayesian ERA, 30% K rate, B+ stuff 0.717, 0.08 BB rate) vs McClanahan (3.49 ERA, 24.2% K rate, B stuff 0.476, 0.083 BB rate). 2.35 ERA gap is ~2.5 run swing; Ohtani is elite-tier ace
- Market fairly priced: 61% implied to LAD vs model 57.9% — market giving LAD appropriate credit for ace advantage
- LAD injuries offset by pitching advantage: 3 bats out (-0.5 to -1.0 pts) but Ohtani (+2.5 pts) = net +1.5 to +2.0 pts to LAD
- Park factor 0.92 (Dodger Stadium, -8% suppression) favors unders; cold weather (73.5°F) adds to suppression (0.004 multiplier)
- NRFI edge tiny (2%, 59.3% prob) — not actionable
Risk Factors
- Favorites (LAD -156) historically underperform on ML when odds are extreme (-156 implies 61% prob); market respect may be over-baked
- McClanahan on road as underdog — could pitch well; ERA may be slightly high
- Dodgers' injuries could lead to a blowout, but Ohtani limits damage and keeps score low (under edge)
MARKET CORRECTPITCHER MISMATCHSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 57.7%
+2.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.6 pts
Total
7.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →