TB vs MIA prediction for June 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.0 - TB 4.8. TB is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
MIA
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIATB
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.0 — TB 4.8
Actual
MIA 0 — TB 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC34%90 mph20% whiff
FF27%96 mph21% whiff
SI21%96 mph12% whiff
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
FF43%94 mph26% whiff
CU14%80 mph15% whiff
FC11%89 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
76°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.54ERA
4.28FIP
7.98K/9
3.44BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIA
3.66ERA
3.63FIP
9.48K/9
4.21BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.8% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-10.9% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-6.5% EV
+116
F5_ML AWAY
-4.2% EV
-145
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.2% EV
+126
ML HOME
-4.0% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.6 runs
47.8% win
MIA F5
2.1 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 0.93x
Yandy Díaz TB28.6%
ISO: 0.094 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Ryan Gusto | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Gusto
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jonathan Heasley RP15-DAY-IL
Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE53.5% WR (n=203)
MIA SP Gusto has 9.72 ERA — catastrophic indicator of bullpen/emergency start situation. Model shows 44.1% home win prob with minimal edges (ML ±4%, OVER 0.6%). This game has DATA INTEGRITY issues: is Gusto legitimately 9.72 or is this a data error? Even assuming real, Gusto is historically one of worst starters — avoidable game until lineup confirmation.
Key Factors
- Gusto 9.72 ERA is extreme outlier — next-worst in slate is Sproat 6.74 ERA (COL). Likely data/roster issue
- If Gusto real: TB Rasmussen (3.63 ERA, B- grade) is massive favorite. Model shows TB 55.9% but market only 58.1% — undervalues TB
- If Gusto bullpen-heavy start: Early-game chaos, unpredicable. Skip until confirmed
- TB bullpen: 4.54 ERA (mediocre), MIA 3.66 (above league avg). If starter issue, MIA relief saves them
- Zero margin for error: All edges <1% total, ML flips based on Gusto confirmation
Risk Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: 9.72 ERA is unexplainable. Gusto may not be starting or data may be corrupted
- Confirmed lineup unavailable — cannot confirm MIA's actual approach
- Flat edges provide no conviction even if data is correct
DATA INTEGRITYTBD PITCHEREXTREME ERA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 55.9%
-39.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.8 pts
Total
7.5
+0.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →