TB vs MIA prediction for June 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.7 - TB 5.0. MIA is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
MIA
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIATB
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (2,193 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.7 — TB 5.0
Actual
MIA 4 — TB 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST25%88 mph33% whiff
FF22%96 mph22% whiff
CH20%92 mph34% whiff
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
SI23%97 mph6% whiff
CH22%91 mph28% whiff
FF20%97 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
84°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.083 Total: 1.046
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.32ERA
4.09FIP
8.21K/9
3.38BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIA
3.58ERA
3.70FIP
9.42K/9
4.31BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.0% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-23.0% EV
-105
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+13.1% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.0% EV
-116
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.2% EV
+150
ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.5 runs
40.1% win
MIA F5
2.7 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB27.2%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x
Jonathan Aranda TB24.1%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan Heasley RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.7% WR (n=297)
Model shows 13.1% OVER edge (60.5% model prob vs 44.9% market) at 7.5 total. This is a TOTALS edge, which is disabled in calibration (49.5% WR Grade D). HOWEVER, external factors strongly support OVER: Sandy Alcantara (4.96 ERA, C- stuff 0.210, B+ command 0.760) is below-average on stuff but competent on control. Griffin Jax (5.14 ERA, B- stuff, B- command) similar profile. Weather is 83.8F (warm +0.5 runs), 10.2mph WIND OUT to left field (10.1mph tail — massive +0.5-1.0 run impact at loanDepot). Bullpen: MIA 3.58 ERA (1.257 quality, strong) vs TB 4.32 ERA (1.042 quality) — MIA edge reduces relief runs. Net: Despite bullpen advantage MIA, weather tail (10mph out) drives OVER edge. Park 1.0 but retractable roof is closed (neutral). Model total 9.68 vs market 7.5 = 2.18 run underpriced total. This is legitimate +1 LEAN on OVER 7.5, conditional on wind confirmation.
Key Factors
- Weather tail: 10.2mph wind OUT to left field (10.1mph tail wind) = +0.75-1.0 run inflation at loanDepot park
- Temperature warm at 83.8F = +0.5 run inflation (air density effect)
- SP weakness: Alcantara 4.96 ERA (C- stuff 0.210 — very weak) vs Jax 5.14 ERA. Neither is run-suppressing
- Model total 9.68 vs market 7.5 = 2.18 run edge. Market has underpriced by ~30%
- Bullpen slight MIA advantage (3.58 vs 4.32 ERA) but not enough to offset weather+SP weakness
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled (D grade 49.5% WR) — edges in totals are historically unreliable. This 13.1% edge may compress
- Wind confirmation critical. If pregame reports show wind shifting IN or reversing, edge collapses. Conditional lean ONLY if wind OUT confirmed.
- Bullpen fatigue unknown for both teams. If either bullpen was heavily used recently, scoring profile changes
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER TAILWEAK SP QUALITYMARKET UNDERPRICEDCONDITIONAL LEAN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.6%
-35.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.0 pts
Total
7.5
+13.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →