FINAL: MIL 2 — TB 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 3.8 - TB 5.0 (TB at 59.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
MIL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TB
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILTB
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5MIL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 3.8 — TB 5.0
Actual
MIL 2 — TB 3
Pick Results
TB @ MIL NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
FC21%89 mph16% whiff
FF21%93 mph10% whiff
CH20%79 mph28% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF58%95 mph24% whiff
SV27%82 mph27% whiff
CH8%86 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
54°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.025
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.98ERA
3.91FIP
9.80K/9
2.82BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIL
3.62ERA
3.49FIP
8.79K/9
3.47BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-33.9% EV
+140
ML AWAY
+28.5% EV
+134
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-26.9% EV
-169
F5_ML HOME
-25.3% EV
-152
F5_ML AWAY
+25.1% EV
+122
ML HOME
-24.8% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
47.6% win
MIL F5
1.5 runs
31.6% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
61.8%
YRFI
38.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Edwin Uceta RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Vaughn 1B10-DAY-IL
Jackson Chourio CF10-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
Steward Berroa RF10-DAY-IL
Craig Yoho RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 59.0%
-33.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-33.9 pts
Total
8.0
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →