FINAL: MIL 6 — TB 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 4.3 - TB 4.3 (MIL at 51.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILTB
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5MIL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.3 — TB 4.3
Actual
MIL 6 — TB 2
Pick Results
F5 UNDER 3.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
OVER 7.5totalWIN+0.98u
TB @ MIL NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
TB MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
Brandon Woodruff R
MIL
SI31%93 mph15% whiff
FF31%93 mph27% whiff
CH18%84 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
49°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.90ERA
3.81FIP
10.22K/9
2.87BB/9
1.22WHIP
MIL
3.43ERA
3.38FIP
9.16K/9
3.41BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.3% EV
-204
F5 UNDER 3.5
+17.6% EV
+112
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-12.9% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.6% EV
+168
ML HOME
-6.4% EV
-127
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+6.3% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.6 runs
37.5% win
MIL F5
1.8 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
63.4%
YRFI
36.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Christian Yelich MIL15.6%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Shane McClanahan | Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL15.5%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Shane McClanahan | Platoon: 1.12x
William Contreras MIL14.5%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Shane McClanahan
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Woodruff
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Edwin Uceta RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPOUT
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Andrew Vaughn 1B10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Steward Berroa RF10-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Chourio CF10-DAY-IL
Craig Yoho RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 51.1%
-10.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.6 pts
Total
7.5
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →