TB vs NYY prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.5 - TB 4.0. NYY is favored with a 60.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYY
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
467
Projected
NYY 5.5 — TB 4.0
Actual
NYY 2 — TB 4
Pick Results
Gerrit Cole OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-2.00u
Gerrit Cole OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI30%92 mph5% whiff
CH28%79 mph31% whiff
FC19%89 mph11% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF62%96 mph29% whiff
KC15%82 mph0% whiff
SL12%89 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
62°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.021
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.13ERA
3.65FIP
8.26K/9
3.27BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.44ERA
3.78FIP
8.79K/9
3.48BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-48.1% EV
-167
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-20.0% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
+120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+11.8% EV
+138
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+10.5% EV
-114
ML AWAY
-9.7% EV
+124
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
32.7% win
NYY F5
2.9 runs
51.5% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
52.9%
YRFI
47.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.369 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 1.10x
Junior Caminero TB27.7%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.9% WR (n=164)
Gerrit Cole (A grade, 50% K-rate, 0.923 overall) vs Nick Martinez (C+ grade, 1.63 ERA, 14.5% K-rate, weak D stuff) is ace vs back-end mismatch favoring NYY; Jose Caballero return adds defensive value but primary edge is Cole dominance. Model 60.2% home prob justified by SP gap.
Key Factors
- Pitcher elite advantage: Gerrit Cole (A grade, 0.923 overall score, 50% K-rate theoretical, fantastic command/stuff) vs Nick Martinez (C+ grade, 0.414 score, 14.5% K-rate, D-grade stuff) — largest SP gap on slate
- Jose Caballero (NYY SS) CONFIRMED ACTIVATED from 10-day IL — returns to starting lineup, adds defensive value + lineup stability
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.10 (high HR multiplier) favors home power hitters; TB lineup missing Gavin Lux (10-day IL shoulder)
- Model 60.2% home win prob at -147 odds (59.5% implied) — model sees 0.3% edge, essentially flat. Market is pricing this correctly
- RUN_LINE edge 11.8% on HOME -1.5 (47.0% prob) — favorable spread value if home team winning
Risk Factors
- 11.8% edge on run line is attractive but run lines add variance; ML is cleaner (0.3% edge is razor-thin)
- TB offense undervalued? Yankees bullpen question mark if Cole only goes 5-6 innings (would need backup)
- 7.5pt total (market) vs 9.41 model projection suggests market might be suppressing scoring (pitching-focused view)
PITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.2%
+11.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.8 pts
Total
7.5
+10.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →