TB vs NYY prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.2 - TB 4.1. NYY is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYY
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.2 — TB 4.1
Actual
NYY 2 — TB 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC35%90 mph21% whiff
FF28%96 mph20% whiff
SI20%96 mph9% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF30%96 mph18% whiff
CH23%85 mph32% whiff
ST21%82 mph48% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
56°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.022
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.11ERA
3.62FIP
8.27K/9
3.26BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.54ERA
3.73FIP
8.89K/9
3.48BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.7% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-23.9% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+17.0% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-15.4% EV
+116
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+10.3% EV
+152
F5 OVER 3.5
+9.8% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.3 runs
36.5% win
NYY F5
2.8 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.359 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY24.7%
ISO: 0.122 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
NYY total over 7.5 shows +17.0% edge (model 57.9% vs 49.5% market) — strong pitcher quality gap (Weathers B vs Rasmussen B-) favors runs. OVER is disabled but F5 TOTAL is enabled (55% WR) — leverage F5 over 3.5 as proxy.
Key Factors
- Weather massive factor: 56.2F, 8.0 mph wind BLOWING OUT at Yankee Stadium — adds 0.7-1.0 runs to game total naturally
- Ryan Weathers (NYY SP) Grade B, 3.87 ERA, 29% K-rate. Drew Rasmussen (TB SP) Grade B-, 3.45 ERA, 23% K-rate
- Market total 7.5 misses weather boost; model predicts 9.36 (reasonable given park +8% HR factor + wind)
- NYY lineup (Judge, Rice, Goldschmidt) + TB lineup (Caminero 30% HR) creates run-scoring environment
- OVER disabled market-wide, but F5 TOTAL UNDER 3.5 shows strong edge (model 55.7%). Use F5 UNDER as proxy instead of full game OVER.
Risk Factors
- Totals market is disabled for good reason (F grade, -50.1u loss). Our total modeling is broken; treat all total edges as suspect
- NYY missing two OF (Stanton, Dominguez) — lineup depth compromised, could reduce scoring by 0.3-0.5 runs
- Wind direction can shift pre-game; if wind dies, total reverts to ~8.0, eliminating edge
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 62.1%
+10.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.3 pts
Total
7.5
+17.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →