TB vs NYY prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.2 - TB 4.1. NYY is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYY
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.2 — TB 4.1
Actual
NYY 2 — TB 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC35%90 mph21% whiff
FF28%96 mph20% whiff
SI20%96 mph9% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF30%96 mph18% whiff
CH23%85 mph32% whiff
ST21%82 mph48% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
56°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.022
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.11ERA
3.62FIP
8.27K/9
3.26BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.54ERA
3.73FIP
8.89K/9
3.48BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.7% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-23.9% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+17.0% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-15.4% EV
+116
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+10.3% EV
+152
F5 OVER 3.5
+9.8% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.3 runs
36.5% win
NYY F5
2.8 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.359 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY24.7%
ISO: 0.122 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=284)
NYY total over 7.5 shows +17.0% edge (model 57.9% vs 49.5% market) — strong pitcher quality gap (Weathers B vs Rasmussen B-) favors runs. OVER is disabled but F5 TOTAL is enabled (55% WR) — leverage F5 over 3.5 as proxy.
Key Factors
- Weather massive factor: 56.2F, 8.0 mph wind BLOWING OUT at Yankee Stadium — adds 0.7-1.0 runs to game total naturally
- Ryan Weathers (NYY SP) Grade B, 3.87 ERA, 29% K-rate. Drew Rasmussen (TB SP) Grade B-, 3.45 ERA, 23% K-rate
- Market total 7.5 misses weather boost; model predicts 9.36 (reasonable given park +8% HR factor + wind)
- NYY lineup (Judge, Rice, Goldschmidt) + TB lineup (Caminero 30% HR) creates run-scoring environment
- OVER disabled market-wide, but F5 TOTAL UNDER 3.5 shows strong edge (model 55.7%). Use F5 UNDER as proxy instead of full game OVER.
Risk Factors
- Totals market is disabled for good reason (F grade, -50.1u loss). Our total modeling is broken; treat all total edges as suspect
- NYY missing two OF (Stanton, Dominguez) — lineup depth compromised, could reduce scoring by 0.3-0.5 runs
- Wind direction can shift pre-game; if wind dies, total reverts to ~8.0, eliminating edge
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 62.1%
+10.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.3 pts
Total
7.5
+17.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →