FINAL: STL 6 — TB 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 3.8 - TB 3.6 (STL at 52.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
STL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLTB
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.8 — TB 3.6
Actual
STL 6 — TB 5
Pick Results
TB @ STL NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joe Boyle R
TB
FF44%98 mph22% whiff
SL32%91 mph31% whiff
FS15%93 mph23% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF25%93 mph18% whiff
SI23%92 mph6% whiff
ST20%84 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
51°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
5.17ERA
5.20FIP
8.18K/9
3.90BB/9
1.39WHIP
STL
3.60ERA
4.04FIP
8.94K/9
4.82BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.4% EV
-204
F5 UNDER 3.5
+38.0% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.6% EV
+168
NRFI NRFI
+14.3% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
-8.0% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-5.7% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.2 runs
33.4% win
STL F5
1.4 runs
39.1% win
F5 Total
2.5
NRFI
73.5%
YRFI
26.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.44
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joe Boyle
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Ryan Pepiot SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
Nick Martinez SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL6 injured
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Zack Thompson RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE60.1% WR (n=81)
Game complete — Cardinals won 6-5 in extras (JJ Wetherholt walk-off single, McGreevy threw 6 hitless innings); all pre-game analysis is now academic.
Key Factors
- GAME COMPLETE: Cardinals 6, Rays 5 (10 innings)
- McGreevy dominant: 6 hitless innings before bullpen nearly blew it
- F5 UNDER 3.5 was the model's top edge at 38% — not tracked as this is post-game
- Model projected total 7.42 vs market 7.5 — tight under edge
- STL home ML at 52.1% model prob vs -112 implied 52.9% — coin flip correctly identified
Risk Factors
- Game concluded; no bet action available
- Extra-inning result was outlier — model correctly identified low-scoring game through 9
GAME COMPLETE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 52.1%
-42.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.4 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →