TB vs TOR prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 2.9 - TB 3.3. TB is favored with a 52.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TB
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTB
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.9 — TB 3.3
Actual
TOR 5 — TB 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC36%90 mph22% whiff
FF27%96 mph20% whiff
SI20%96 mph9% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF54%94 mph15% whiff
FS40%84 mph37% whiff
SL6%84 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
53°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.964 Total: 0.979
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.70ERA
3.54FIP
8.28K/9
3.27BB/9
1.26WHIP
TOR
3.67ERA
3.09FIP
10.31K/9
3.24BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.4% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-31.7% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.9% EV
+172
F5_ML HOME
-15.5% EV
-122
ML HOME
-12.6% EV
-127
F5 UNDER 3.5
+12.1% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.7 runs
43.0% win
TOR F5
1.5 runs
34.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
67.1%
YRFI
32.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
39%
No HR
26%
Junior Caminero TB23.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR19.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 1.01x
Jesús Sánchez TOR17.4%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ty Johnson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Driscoll CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Fernando Perez PDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=247)
Market priced total 7.0 ignores structural run suppression: cold (52.6°F), wind INTO (-6.1 mph), retractable roof (likely closed), Rogers Centre climate control, and two solid mid-tier starters (3.19 vs 3.34 ERA) — model projects 6.25 total, 55.2% under probability.
Key Factors
- Weather suppression: 52.6°F COLD + -6.1 mph wind INTO field + retractable roof = 0.979 run multiplier (2.1% run reduction)
- Pitcher matchup: Rasmussen 3.19 ERA (B-grade, 4.1% BB-rate, excellent control) vs Gausman 3.34 ERA (B-grade, 5.7% BB-rate). Minimal mismatch but both quality.
- Model total 6.25 vs market 7.0 = 0.75 run gap (11.9% undervalue on UNDER side)
- UNDER 7.0 edge: 7.6% with 55.2% model probability — actionable
- NRFI edge: 7.9% with 64.6% model probability — secondary play
Risk Factors
- Retractable roof status unknown — if open, suppression effect reduced by ~0.3 runs
- Both teams capable of producing quick early runs despite cold (minor leagues often play in cold)
- Market may have information on roof status that model doesn't capture
WEATHER IMPACTWIND SUPPRESSIONCOLD ENVIRONMENTTOTALS VALUEPITCHER SLIGHT ADVANTAGE AWAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.8%
-18.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.9 pts
Total
7.0
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →