TB vs TOR prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.3 - TB 3.1. TOR is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
TOR
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TB
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTB
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.3 — TB 3.1
Actual
TOR 6 — TB 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF38%95 mph16% whiff
CH28%87 mph34% whiff
SL23%88 mph28% whiff
Patrick Corbin L
TOR
SI35%91 mph3% whiff
SL24%78 mph42% whiff
FC19%86 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
46°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.019
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.76ERA
3.60FIP
8.36K/9
3.26BB/9
1.25WHIP
TOR
3.62ERA
3.11FIP
10.11K/9
3.20BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-37.7% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.8% EV
-167
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.9% EV
+138
F5 UNDER 4.5
+18.4% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+18.3% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+17.1% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.6 runs
35.4% win
TOR F5
1.9 runs
43.3% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
67.4%
YRFI
32.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
41%
No HR
25%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB24.4%
ISO: 0.078 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR24.3%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Patrick Corbin
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Chandler Simpson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Fernando Perez PDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 53.5%
-34.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.8 pts
Total
8.0
+18.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →