TB vs TOR prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.7 - TB 3.8. TB is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TOR
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTB
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 3.7 — TB 3.8
Actual
TOR 5 — TB 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST26%89 mph36% whiff
FF24%96 mph20% whiff
CH18%92 mph30% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF35%98 mph24% whiff
SL30%89 mph45% whiff
CH11%85 mph54% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
47°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.949 Total: 0.969
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.89ERA
3.55FIP
8.39K/9
3.27BB/9
1.27WHIP
TOR
3.66ERA
3.19FIP
10.13K/9
3.36BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.5% EV
-179
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.8% EV
+146
F5_ML HOME
-15.0% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-14.5% EV
-110
ML HOME
-13.5% EV
-147
ML AWAY
+8.6% EV
+124
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
41.8% win
TOR F5
2.0 runs
40.3% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
64.1%
YRFI
35.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
20%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 1.01x
Jesús Sánchez TOR17.0%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
George Springer TOR16.4%
ISO: 0.112 | Barrel: 6.0% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Driscoll CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Fernando Perez PDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE39.9% WR (n=6)
Dylan Cease (2.79 ERA, A- stuff, 33.6% K, B- command = elite starter) dominates Griffin Jax (5.4 ERA, C+ stuff, 21.3% K) but cold weather (47°F) and home team odds (TOR -147, 59.5% implied) create a market overcorrection; model projects 48.5% TB away win probability at +8.6% edge, lean away in this pitcher-driven, low-scoring spot.
Key Factors
- Cease 2.79 ERA (A- stuff, 33.6% K, elite arsenal) vs Jax 5.4 ERA (C+ stuff, 21.3% K): clear ace advantage
- Away ML edge: +8.6% (model 48.5% vs market 44.6%); modest but real value
- UNDER edge: +5.5% (model 55.2% vs market 49.4%); cold suppresses scoring for both
- Extreme cold: 47°F, 11 mph IN, density altitude -538 = very pitcher-friendly; baseline small-scoring game
Risk Factors
- Cold weather (47°F, density altitude -538) is extreme; scores will be suppressed for both teams, reducing away pitcher advantage
- Home field advantage in cold games is traditionally strong (team familiarity); TOR could have edge
- Away ML in moderate edge bucket shows 39.9% WR (n=6 is small sample, but caution)
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTCOLD GAMEMODEST EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 50.5%
-16.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.8 pts
Total
7.5
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →