TEX vs BAL prediction for March 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 6.4 - TEX 4.8. BAL is favored with a 64.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
BAL
6.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTEX
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W4BAL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
BAL
468
Projected
BAL 6.4 — TEX 4.8
Actual
BAL 5 — TEX 8
Pick Results
Colton Cowser OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.82u
BAL F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
BAL MLmlLOSS-1.00u
OVER 8.5totalWIN+0.85u
TEX @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.96u
F5 UNDER 4.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF46%98 mph18% whiff
SL38%90 mph37% whiff
CH11%90 mph38% whiff
Zach Eflin R
BAL
FC22%88 mph13% whiff
SI19%92 mph11% whiff
CH16%87 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
84°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.959 Total: 0.974
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.53ERA
4.41FIP
8.51K/9
5.76BB/9
1.42WHIP
BAL
3.26ERA
3.21FIP
10.30K/9
2.47BB/9
1.11WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-34.8% EV
+128
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-31.4% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-28.5% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
+28.2% EV
+118
ML AWAY
-27.7% EV
-130
ML HOME
+26.4% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.0 runs
31.3% win
BAL F5
2.9 runs
53.5% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
54.3%
YRFI
45.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Jake Burger TEX31.8%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Zach Eflin | Park: 1.03x
Corey Seager TEX26.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Zach Eflin | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Nimmo TEX23.6%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Zach Eflin | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Zach Eflin
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX6 injured
Cody Bradford SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSOUT
Nabil Crismatt SPOUT
Declan Cronin RPOUT
BAL8 injured
Andrew Kittredge RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Maverick Handley CDAY-TO-DAY
Richard Guasch SPDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Vazquez SSDAY-TO-DAY
Hans Crouse RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 64.4%
-16.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-16.4 pts
Total
8.5
+22.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →