TEX vs BOS prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.1 - TEX 4.8. BOS is favored with a 54.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
BOS
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTEX
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
BOS
357
Projected
BOS 5.1 — TEX 4.8
Actual
BOS 10 — TEX 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Leiter R
TEX
FF38%97 mph21% whiff
CH18%90 mph30% whiff
SL17%87 mph35% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC21%89 mph12% whiff
FF20%92 mph12% whiff
CU19%80 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
79°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.40ERA
4.04FIP
7.62K/9
3.31BB/9
1.22WHIP
BOS
4.08ERA
4.22FIP
9.13K/9
3.62BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.9% EV
-200
F5 OVER 4.5
+10.7% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-9.5% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-7.8% EV
+108
ML AWAY
-4.1% EV
+110
ML HOME
-3.8% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.6 runs
38.3% win
BOS F5
3.1 runs
48.8% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
51.9%
YRFI
48.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.199 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.08x
Jarren Duran BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Josh Jung TEX28.6%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Leiter
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jalen Beeks RP15-DAY-IL
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=98)
Model predicts BOS 54.3% (slight home edge) but market prices at 56.5%, leaving -3.8% ML edge. Sonny Gray (3.46 ERA, B- grade) vs Jack Leiter (5.07 ERA, B- grade) shows 1.61 ERA mismatch favoring home, but F5 strong edge (10.7%, 58% model) suggests early runs underpriced. Neutral confound: no clear bet above calibration minimum.
Key Factors
- Gray 3.46 ERA vs Leiter 5.07 ERA (1.61-point gap) — modest mismatch, both B-grade overall
- F5 edge clear: +10.7% (58% model prob) suggests early runs concentrated; Leiter weaker early-inning command may explain
- Fenway wind condition favorable: +3.7 mph outbound wind drives 1.052x HR multiplier — 5-8% run environment boost
Risk Factors
- Negative ML edge (-3.8%) despite home GREEN zone suggests market knows something about BOS or TEX depth/momentum
- Specialist markets (F5) not calibrated in current regime; avoid F5 bets without dedicated profitability zone confirmation
MODEST PITCHER MISMATCHF5 EDGE NOTABLEFENWAY HR FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 54.3%
+2.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.7 pts
Total
8.5
+0.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →