TEX vs BOS prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.9 - TEX 5.0. BOS is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
BOS
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TEX
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTEX
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
BOS
357
Projected
BOS 4.9 — TEX 5.0
Actual
BOS 4 — TEX 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nathan Eovaldi R
TEX
FS38%88 mph31% whiff
FC21%91 mph27% whiff
CU20%76 mph34% whiff
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF36%94 mph22% whiff
CH20%84 mph21% whiff
SI20%92 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
85°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.004 Total: 1.000
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.61ERA
4.19FIP
7.61K/9
3.32BB/9
1.23WHIP
BOS
3.98ERA
4.20FIP
9.08K/9
3.49BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.8% EV
-182
F5 OVER 4.5
+11.3% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-9.9% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-8.0% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.2% EV
+150
ML HOME
-5.6% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
3.0 runs
46.0% win
BOS F5
2.8 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Jake Burger TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Josh Jung TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nathan Eovaldi
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Michael Helman CFOUT
Corey Seager SSDAY-TO-DAY
Evan Carter CF10-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Nick Sogard 3B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 50.5%
-33.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.8 pts
Total
9.0
+0.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →