FINAL: CLE 2 — TEX 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 4.1 - TEX 3.8 (CLE at 54.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
CLE
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETEX
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W5CLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.1 — TEX 3.8
Actual
CLE 2 — TEX 4
Pick Results
CLE MLmlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph40% whiff
CH14%90 mph43% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC26%86 mph33% whiff
FF23%94 mph12% whiff
SI22%94 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
92°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.004 Total: 0.999
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.4% EV
-154
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.4% EV
+128
F5_ML AWAY
-16.4% EV
-143
ML AWAY
-14.3% EV
-127
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-9.8% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
+8.8% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.1 runs
39.1% win
CLE F5
2.3 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE28.7%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Brandon Nimmo RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE58.2% WR (n=11)
deGrom (B+ ace, 29.6% K rate, 10.5 K/9, FF-dominant elite arsenal) vs Tanner Bibee (B-, 20.3% K rate, 7.6 K/9, balanced fastball profile). Market is overvaluing TEX (+126 away, 55.8% implied) despite deGrom's elite stuff and CLE home advantage. Model correctly favors CLE at 52.1% (8.4% edge over -126 market). Zone: YELLOW (58.2% WR, 5-10% edge bucket, small n=11 but consistent). Pitcher quality dominance + home field + market mispricing = actionable lean.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: deGrom (B+, 29.6% K rate, 10.5 K/9, elite FF/SL combo) vs Bibee (B-, 20.3% K rate, 7.6 K/9) — major advantage CLE
- Home field CLE: 54.1% home win prob vs 45.9% away — deGrom maximizes home edge
- Market implied CLE 48.1% but model 52.1% = 4.0pp edge captured in +108 odds
- Cold temp (92°F) and 9.2 mph wind blowing in suppresses runs — favors CLE control pitcher
- Zone: YELLOW but combo is GREEN (59.3% WR) for home ML — validates bet
Risk Factors
- Small sample size: zone n=11, possible noise
- TEX road success historically — need to verify but doesn't show in model
- deGrom injury history — could affect durability but no IL flag today
PITCHER MISMATCH STRONGHOME FIELD ADVANTAGEZONE GREEN COMBOML VALUEUNDERVALUED FAVORITE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 54.1%
-31.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.4 pts
Total
7.5
+0.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →