TEX vs CLE prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.0 - TEX 3.8. CLE is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
CLE
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETEX
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
CLE
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph40% whiff
CH14%90 mph43% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FC26%86 mph33% whiff
FF23%94 mph12% whiff
SI22%94 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
95°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.990
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.4% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.4% EV
+160
ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+7.8% EV
-118
ML HOME
+1.1% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
CLE F5
2.3 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE29.3%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Brandon Nimmo RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Angel Martinez LF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Burns SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Ramirez 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 54.4%
-34.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.4 pts
Total
8.5
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →