TEX vs COL prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 3.0 - TEX 3.1. COL is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
COL
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
TEX
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLTEX
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
COL
135
Projected
COL 3.0 — TEX 3.1
Actual
COL 0 — TEX 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Alexander L
TEX
FC26%88 mph8% whiff
SI26%91 mph7% whiff
CH24%84 mph22% whiff
Sammy Peralta L
COL
SL45%81 mph26% whiff
SI30%89 mph14% whiff
CH10%84 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
43°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.045
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.99ERA
3.77FIP
7.48K/9
3.69BB/9
1.18WHIP
COL
4.69ERA
4.15FIP
8.77K/9
3.93BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-59.6% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+47.8% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 5.5
+42.4% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.1% EV
-169
NRFI NRFI
+21.3% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.9% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.3 runs
34.1% win
COL F5
1.5 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
69.5%
YRFI
30.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.55
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
70%
Over 1.5 HR
35%
No HR
30%
Mickey Moniak COL27.2%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs Tyler Alexander | Park: 1.18x
Hunter Goodman COL10.0%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Tyler Alexander | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Burger TEX9.6%
ISO: 0.091 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Sammy Peralta | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Alexander
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Sammy Peralta
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
MacKenzie Gore SPDAY-TO-DAY
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RFPATERNITY
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Jimmy Herget RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 50.6%
-39.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.1 pts
Total
10.0
+47.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →