FINAL: COL 4 — TEX 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 4.2 - TEX 3.3 (COL at 61.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
COL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
TEX
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLTEX
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W5COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.0% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
COL
246
Projected
COL 4.2 — TEX 3.3
Actual
COL 4 — TEX 5
Pick Results
TEX @ COL F5 UNDER 5.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Leiter R
TEX
FF38%97 mph23% whiff
CH19%90 mph36% whiff
SL18%87 mph39% whiff
Kyle Freeland L
COL
FF27%92 mph13% whiff
KC23%82 mph28% whiff
ST17%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
53°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.127 Total: 1.065
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.97ERA
3.77FIP
7.46K/9
3.65BB/9
1.17WHIP
COL
4.89ERA
4.17FIP
8.67K/9
3.93BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-46.1% EV
-111
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-34.6% EV
+123
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+30.1% EV
-108
F5_ML AWAY
-27.2% EV
-125
ML AWAY
-24.8% EV
-123
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-21.2% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.7 runs
30.3% win
COL F5
2.6 runs
52.7% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Mickey Moniak COL30.0%
ISO: 0.368 | Barrel: 19.4% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
TJ Rumfield COL25.8%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake McCarthy COL17.2%
ISO: 0.181 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Leiter
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Freeland
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
MacKenzie Gore SPDAY-TO-DAY
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Feltner SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Jimmy Herget RP15-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 61.1%
-21.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-21.2 pts
Total
10.0
+30.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →