TEX vs DET prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - TEX 3.1. DET is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTEX
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W4DET
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — TEX 3.1
Actual
DET 5 — TEX 1
Pick Results
Corey Seager OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Kevin Mcgonigle OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+1.72u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
SI39%95 mph13% whiff
SL37%84 mph29% whiff
CH9%89 mph39% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
FF34%94 mph12% whiff
SI21%94 mph8% whiff
CH17%87 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
50°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.984
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.67ERA
3.95FIP
7.73K/9
3.36BB/9
1.10WHIP
DET
4.30ERA
4.37FIP
8.84K/9
4.63BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.3% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-32.6% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+20.7% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+18.4% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-17.9% EV
+102
NRFI NRFI
+12.2% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.5 runs
30.8% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.9%
YRFI
35.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Kumar Rocker | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kumar Rocker
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Nimmo RFDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Kenley Jansen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Zach McKinstry 2B10-DAY-IL
Max Anderson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 6.76 runs (65.9% UNDER prob) vs 8.5 market. Montero (solid, 4.32 ERA, B grade, elite 85.8% command) vs Rocker (solid, 3.65 ERA, C+ grade). 20.7% UNDER edge is strong. Cold Detroit (50F), 7.7mph wind suppresses scoring. NRFI also strong at +12.2% edge. Lean UNDER with conviction.
Key Factors
- Montero 4.32 ERA (B, elite 85.8% command) is superior to Rocker 3.65 ERA (C+) on control metrics
- Cold Detroit 50F, wind in (0.984 mult) suppress runs 0.5-0.7 from baseline
- Model 6.76 vs market 8.5 = 1.74 run gap, 20.7% edge — strong, above optimal threshold
- TEX strong bullpen (2.67 ERA, 1.685 quality) complements Montero, limits DET scoring
Risk Factors
- DET could be rested/motivated vs division rival; Rocker is solid (3.65 ERA) and could limit scoring himself
- Cold temps only suppress 0.5-0.7 (not full 1.0), so model's 6.76 may be somewhat optimistic
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUEDIRECTION CONFIRMED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 57.9%
-1.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.9 pts
Total
8.5
+20.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →