TEX vs DET prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - TEX 3.5. DET is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTEX
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
245
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — TEX 3.5
Actual
DET 7 — TEX 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Leiter R
TEX
FF39%97 mph22% whiff
CH21%90 mph36% whiff
SL18%87 mph40% whiff
Tyler Holton L
DET
FC37%87 mph11% whiff
CH18%84 mph30% whiff
SI15%91 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
63°F18 mph wind
HR: 0.937 Total: 0.961
17mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.54ERA
3.90FIP
7.72K/9
3.42BB/9
1.11WHIP
DET
4.21ERA
4.29FIP
8.92K/9
4.54BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.4% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-29.5% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.5% EV
+172
F5_ML AWAY
-11.2% EV
-106
NRFI NRFI
+10.4% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+10.1% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.9 runs
36.5% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
66.5%
YRFI
33.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Josh Jung TEX27.9%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Tyler Holton | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET25.8%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Leiter
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Holton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Gleyber Torres 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Kenley Jansen RPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
Zach McKinstry 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE51.0% WR (n=221)
UNDER 8.0 at 56.2% model WR, 10.1% edge (marginal). Tyler Holton (5.98 ERA, C stuff, poor) vs Jack Leiter (5.58 ERA, B stuff, better). Model projects 7.21 vs market 8.0 (sweet spot edge range). Cold (63.1°F), 17mph wind BLOWING IN (strong suppression, -16.6 mph tail) = unders favor. Minimal edge makes this a LEAN only.
Key Factors
- Jack Leiter (TEX away) 5.58 ERA, 25.6% K, B stuff—better pitcher than Holton
- Tyler Holton (DET) 5.98 ERA, 14.5% K, C stuff—poor pitcher, weak command (0.433)
- Extreme cold (63.1°F) + MASSIVE wind 17mph BLOWING IN = major run suppression (0.961x total mult, -3.9%)
- Model 7.21 vs market 8.0 = 0.79 run gap. 10.1% edge is in sweet spot (10-15% edges 57.7% WR historically).
Risk Factors
- 10.1% edge is marginal; YELLOW zone (51% WR) adds uncertainty. Not high confidence.
- Both pitchers have poor ERAs; could elevate run environment if hitters make solid contact
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 52.7%
-37.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.4 pts
Total
8.0
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →