TEX vs HOU prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.2 - TEX 3.4. HOU is favored with a 61.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
HOU
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTEX
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.0% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.2 — TEX 3.4
Actual
HOU 4 — TEX 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF46%97 mph24% whiff
SL31%91 mph39% whiff
CH16%90 mph39% whiff
Kai-Wei Teng R
HOU
ST36%85 mph27% whiff
FF28%95 mph17% whiff
SI17%94 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
82°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.027
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.03ERA
3.85FIP
7.61K/9
3.77BB/9
1.22WHIP
HOU
5.36ERA
4.82FIP
8.30K/9
5.16BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
+38.0% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-36.6% EV
-159
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-36.0% EV
+115
ML AWAY
-26.9% EV
-147
ML HOME
+26.5% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-20.1% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.4 runs
26.4% win
HOU F5
2.4 runs
55.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Cole HOU24.7%
ISO: 0.130 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU23.9%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Kai-Wei Teng
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Corey Seager SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE0.5% WR (n=153)
Model shows massive F5_ML edge (38.0%, 61.1% prob home) but full-game ML edge suspicious at 26.5% (56.5% prob home) — RED FLAG for model overconfidence. Jacob deGrom (2.83 ERA, elite) on road for TEX yet model favors HOU home team despite deGrom presence. Seager OUT (back spasms) kills TEX lineup. High edges (20%+) historically underperform (30% WR per calibration). This smells like model mispricing the deGrom/Seager absence — Corey Seager is HOU shortstop? NO — he plays for TEX. Model likely confusing team rosters. FLAG DATA INTEGRITY.
Key Factors
- Jacob deGrom (2.83 ERA, B+ grade, 32.2% K-rate, elite) pitches for TEX road — model should heavily favor TEX
- Model projects HOU 56.5% win prob despite deGrom — suggests model may be confused on roster
- Corey Seager (TEX SS, day-to-day back spasms, now OUT) — critical lineup hit to road team
- HOU bullpen weak (5.36 ERA) vs TEX (3.03 ERA, excellent) — bullpen advantage TEX
- F5_ML edge 38% is EXTREME (highest on board) — calibration warns edges >20% are model overconfidence
Risk Factors
- 26.5% ML edge in high-confidence range — historically underperforms (30% WR on edges 15-25%)
- Suspected roster data error (deGrom assignment) — if model is confused, all projections invalid
- Seager OUT represents ~1-2 run swing away team doesn't factor correctly
DATA INTEGRITY CONCERNHIGH EDGE WARNINGEXTREME F5 EDGEDEGROM LEGENDARY SPSEAGER OUT IMPACTSUSPICION MODEL CONFUSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 61.1%
-20.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-20.1 pts
Total
7.5
+5.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →