TEX vs HOU prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 3.9 - TEX 3.9. HOU is favored with a 52.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
HOU
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTEX
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.9 — TEX 3.9
Actual
HOU 0 — TEX 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nathan Eovaldi R
TEX
FS37%88 mph28% whiff
FC22%91 mph32% whiff
CU20%76 mph36% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
FF32%94 mph16% whiff
CH24%88 mph40% whiff
SL16%86 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
86°F15 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.99ERA
3.85FIP
7.57K/9
3.78BB/9
1.21WHIP
HOU
5.72ERA
5.03FIP
8.25K/9
5.76BB/9
1.59WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.2% EV
-161
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.5% EV
+134
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-19.1% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-14.2% EV
-128
ML AWAY
-11.9% EV
-123
ML HOME
+5.7% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.0 runs
38.2% win
HOU F5
2.2 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
7%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 18.8% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Cole HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.169 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU23.9%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nathan Eovaldi
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Corey Seager SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Jose Altuve 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 52.8%
-33.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.2 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →