TEX vs MIA prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.7 - TEX 3.4. MIA is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
MIA
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIATEX
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.7 — TEX 3.4
Actual
MIA 3 — TEX 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Alexander L
TEX
CH26%84 mph20% whiff
FC25%88 mph14% whiff
SI24%91 mph7% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI27%96 mph4% whiff
ST24%84 mph35% whiff
FS23%88 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
86°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.031
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.0% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.7% EV
-106
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.8% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+17.9% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+13.8% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.8 runs
40.2% win
MIA F5
1.8 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
66.4%
YRFI
33.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Esteury Ruiz MIA24.1%
ISO: 0.367 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Tyler Alexander | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Burger TEX19.2%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.93x
Griffin Conine MIA16.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Tyler Alexander | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Alexander
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Corey Seager SS7-DAY IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SPBEREAVEMENT
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Liam Hicks C10-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
MIA home projects 7.18 total runs vs market 8.5 — model 62.7% prob on UNDER 8.5 yields 17.9% edge. Both pitchers pedestrian (Phillips 3.35 ERA, Alexander 3.21 ERA), but Miami stadium dampens runs and 86.3F is warm without being extreme; MIA bullpen (3.85 ERA) superior to TEX (3.60 ERA) pushes late-game leverage toward unders.
Key Factors
- Model total 7.18 vs market 8.5: 1.32-run edge on UNDER 8.5 (62.7% model prob vs 45% market implied) = 17.9% edge
- Both SPs mediocre: Phillips 3.35 ERA, Alexander 3.21 ERA — no ace performance to inflate scoring
- MIA bullpen 3.85 ERA > TEX 3.60 ERA (slight advantage to MIA late)
- loanDepot park + retractable roof + 86.3F + 5 mph out = slight under lean (1.031 total_mult, neutral HR)
- NRFI edge 13.8% (60.6% model prob) — first-inning unders likely, supporting overall under theme
Risk Factors
- UNDER bets auto-disabled in calibration (47.5% WR, -13.6u) — system flagged this market as unprofitable
- Zone profile YELLOW with 50.1% WR — minimal predictive power. Totals are unreliable on this slate.
- 17.9% edge could be model seeing something market doesn't (good) or model misprojecting both SPs (risky)
TOTALS VALUEYELLOW ZONECAUTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 53.4%
-3.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.8 pts
Total
8.5
+17.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →