TEX vs MIA prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.2 - TEX 3.7. MIA is favored with a 56.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIATEX
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.2 — TEX 3.7
Actual
MIA 4 — TEX 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF43%97 mph21% whiff
SL34%91 mph40% whiff
CH14%90 mph43% whiff
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF48%98 mph20% whiff
SL15%88 mph39% whiff
ST14%83 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
90°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.033
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.0% EV
-185
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.1% EV
+152
ML AWAY
-17.2% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
-141
ML HOME
+10.6% EV
+102
F5 OVER 3.5
+8.8% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.3 runs
42.8% win
MIA F5
2.3 runs
43.1% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Nimmo TEX27.5%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Eury Pérez | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Griffin Conine MIA27.5%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Corey Seager SS7-DAY IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SPBEREAVEMENT
Liam Hicks C10-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=121)
Model edge of 10.6% on home ML (54.8% vs market 49.5%) is a classic high-edge failure mode — historically these bet profiles have lowest WR due to model overconfidence. Away ace deGrom (3.88 ERA, B+ grade, 34.5% SL mix) outmatches home pitcher Pérez (4.97 ERA, B grade, 47.6% FF), but market has already partially priced this in; the remaining 10% edge is model artifact.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality gap: deGrom 3.88 ERA (B+, 34.5% SL) vs Pérez 4.97 ERA (B, 47.6% FF) — ~1.1 ERA advantage to away
- Model edge 10.6% but in worst-performing historical zone: similar edge profiles (10-15%) have 0% historical WR (n=3)
- Market already respecting away pitcher: MIA favored only +102, implying 49.5% home win probability vs model 54.8%
Risk Factors
- High-edge trap: Model disagrees with market by 10%+; high disagreement = highest model failure rate historically
- Away ace on road (deGrom) still slight dog — market may be correctly pricing underdog discount
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 56.5%
-29.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.0 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →