TEX vs NYY prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.4 - TEX 4.7. NYY is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
NYY
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TEX
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTEX
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.4 — TEX 4.7
Actual
NYY 7 — TEX 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
FF47%97 mph23% whiff
SL29%91 mph35% whiff
CH16%90 mph40% whiff
Elmer Rodríguez R
NYY
SI34%95 mph10% whiff
FF29%96 mph12% whiff
SL18%80 mph67% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
80°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 1.000
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.66ERA
3.86FIP
7.80K/9
3.38BB/9
1.12WHIP
NYY
3.40ERA
3.64FIP
8.71K/9
3.37BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.2% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-21.3% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.8% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
-13.8% EV
-123
F5 OVER 4.5
+7.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.8 runs
40.3% win
NYY F5
3.2 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
50.1%
YRFI
49.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Burger TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 1.10x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.351 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Elmer Rodríguez
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Ben Rice 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Hess SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE46.1% WR (n=141)
Jacob deGrom's elite (2.17 ERA, B+, 31.7% K rate) dominates Elmer Rodriguez's mediocre (4.86 ERA, C-, 10% K rate); despite away status, deGrom's 2.69 ERA advantage justifies TEX ML play despite -13.9% edge showing model overconfidence.
Key Factors
- ELITE SP mismatch: Jacob deGrom 2.17 ERA, A-, 31.7% K rate, B+ command vs Elmer Rodriguez 4.86 ERA, C-, 10% K rate (2.69 ERA gap is LARGEST in slate)
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.1 (8% HR boost) and neutral weather (79.8F, light wind) — NYY home field amplified
- NYY bullpen elite (3.4 ERA, 1.324 quality) but Giancarlo Stanton (DH, 10d IL calf) weakens lineup — estimated -0.5 pts impact
- Model showing NYY 59% despite inferior pitcher — home field weighting excessive vs pitcher quality gap
- AWAY ML showing -13.9% edge (model 42.6% vs market 49.5%) — away underdogs in RED zone historically (46.1% WR)
Risk Factors
- Away ML is in YELLOW zone (46.1% WR) — underperforming historically
- High-edge scenario (13.9%) with away dog status = worst profile per performance data
- NYY offense (Aaron Judge 30% HR prob, Willson Contreras 30% HR prob) can pressure even elite pitchers
PITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORHIGH EDGE WARNINGYELLOW ZONE ML AWAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 59.0%
-27.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.2 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →