TEX vs NYY prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.5 - TEX 3.5. NYY is favored with a 62.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
NYY
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTEX
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
245
NYY
346
Projected
NYY 4.5 — TEX 3.5
Actual
NYY 9 — TEX 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF44%96 mph23% whiff
CU20%82 mph26% whiff
CH13%87 mph31% whiff
Paul Blackburn R
NYY
SI34%94 mph5% whiff
FC32%91 mph20% whiff
CU12%81 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
58°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.992
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.67ERA
4.00FIP
7.69K/9
3.52BB/9
1.14WHIP
NYY
3.22ERA
3.48FIP
9.08K/9
3.36BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.5% EV
-156
F5_ML AWAY
-24.6% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.9% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
+12.7% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+10.3% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-9.7% EV
+136
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.8 runs
29.5% win
NYY F5
2.9 runs
55.2% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Paul Blackburn | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.429 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Cody Bellinger NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.290 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Paul Blackburn
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Jose Caballero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Rice 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Weathers SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE57.9% WR (n=6)
Market correctly prices NYY home favorite (-161) despite clear pitcher advantage; no actionable edges on ML or full game total — F5 edges above calibration thresholds.
Key Factors
- Pitcher dominance: Blackburn (3.47 ERA, C+) >> Gore (5.04 ERA, C) — 1.57 ERA gap favors NYY
- Blackburn command (B, 0.649 score) vs Gore command (B-, 0.51) — home SP clearly superior
- Weather 58°F + light wind: neutral-to-slightly-suppressive on runs (HR mult 0.987)
- Market ML odds (-161) reflect model projection accurately (61.7% vs 62.4% model)
Risk Factors
- Gore's recent K rate (29.1%) threatens to suppress NYY offense despite ERA disadvantage
- Cold weather (58°F) can suppress both teams; model assumes normalization
PITCHER MISMATCHNO ML VALUETHRESHOLD COMPLIANCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 62.4%
+1.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.2 pts
Total
8.5
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →