TEX vs OAK prediction for April 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.5 - TEX 3.4. OAK is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
OAK
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKTEX
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W4OAK L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
OAK
245
Pick Results
Jeff McNeil OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-2.00u
Evan Carter OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.57u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF42%96 mph25% whiff
CU24%82 mph33% whiff
CH13%87 mph26% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
FF43%91 mph14% whiff
CH22%79 mph49% whiff
SL19%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
58°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.984
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.23ERA
3.67FIP
7.69K/9
3.62BB/9
1.17WHIP
OAK
3.84ERA
4.20FIP
8.56K/9
5.13BB/9
1.54WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.5% EV
-156
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-31.2% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+24.5% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.9% EV
+130
F5_ML AWAY
-18.2% EV
-135
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.0% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.7 runs
34.7% win
OAK F5
2.0 runs
45.0% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
64.9%
YRFI
35.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LFDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP15-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSDAY-TO-DAY
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK1 injured
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE52.6% WR (n=543)
TOTAL UNDER 8.5 with 22.8% edge (capped to ~15-20% effective due to HIGH_EDGE_WARNING) is driven by cold weather (58.2°F, coldest game alongside LAD), wind in, and both starters being poor quality (Severino 5.83 ERA, Eovaldi 8.62 ERA — worst on slate). ML is coin flip (-0.2% away edge); UNDER is cleaner value.
Key Factors
- Both starters poor: Severino 5.83 ERA + 18.9% BB (wild) vs Eovaldi 8.62 ERA (worst on slate) — game will be low-scoring by SP quality
- Weather effect: 58.2°F (COLDEST game with LAD) + wind 9.2 mph in = -0.8 to -1.0 run suppression
- Model-market gap: 7.07 projected vs 8.5 market = 1.43 run undervalue before weather (credible)
- Park factor neutral: 1.0 no advantage either side
- UNDER edge: 22.8% is massive but triggers calibration warning; cap effective edge to 15-20%
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 22.8% edge historically shows 42.9% WR (small sample n=14); overconfidence risk
- Severino regression: 5.83 ERA may regress positively; regressed arm could score more
- Eovaldi possible home-run regression: 8.62 ERA suggests hitters finding fastball; could regress but maybe doesn't
TOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 52.9%
-32.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.5 pts
Total
8.5
+24.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →