FINAL: PHI 4 — TEX 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.7 - TEX 4.0 (PHI at 57.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
PHI
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITEX
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W4PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.7 — TEX 4.0
Actual
PHI 4 — TEX 5
Pick Results
TEX @ PHI NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Latz L
TEX
FF49%94 mph20% whiff
CH23%85 mph40% whiff
SL21%84 mph28% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
FF30%92 mph12% whiff
KC29%78 mph38% whiff
SI18%91 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
43°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.935 Total: 0.963
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.94ERA
4.88FIP
8.03K/9
4.91BB/9
1.48WHIP
PHI
9.36ERA
7.62FIP
6.70K/9
3.13BB/9
1.87WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.6% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-22.1% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+16.9% EV
-139
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+14.5% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+11.2% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.4 runs
31.6% win
PHI F5
2.0 runs
46.9% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
62.8%
YRFI
37.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Kyle Schwarber PHI22.0%
ISO: 0.346 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Jacob Latz | Park: 1.02x
Bryce Harper PHI15.4%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Jacob Latz | Park: 1.02x
Corey Seager TEX15.3%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Latz
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX7 injured
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bradford SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSOUT
Nabil Crismatt SPOUT
+1 more
PHI8 injured
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Orion Kerkering RP15-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPOUT
Aidan Miller SSOUT
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2GREEN ZONE56.0% WR (n=908)
DeGrom's scratch creates a significant total mispricing — market set at 7.5 when deGrom was expected to throw, but Latz (B- overall, 8.0% BB rate, weaker command) is considerably worse, and model projects 8.74 total runs (1.24 OVER the 7.5 line) in a park with HR candidates Schwarber (22% HR prob) and Seager (15.3%), despite 43°F and light headwind. The market has not fully adjusted the total upward from the deGrom assumption.
Key Factors
- CONFIRMED: deGrom scratched, Jacob Latz starts (Latz: B- stuff, 8.0% BB rate vs Nola's 6.9% BB — more walks, weaker arsenal)
- Model projects 8.74 total runs vs 7.5 market total = 1.24-run OVER edge (massive gap)
- Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.02, but 43°F temperature and 7.6 mph headwind (total_mult 0.963) partially suppresses — net still heavily over 7.5
- Schwarber 22.0% HR probability (.346 ISO, barrel 14.6%) and Harper 15.4% HR probability — PHI lineup elite vs. LHP Latz
- Over zone: GREEN at 56.0% WR (908 sample), 56.9% combo WR — structurally profitable over market
Risk Factors
- 43°F cold + 7.6 mph wind blowing in partially suppresses runs (total_mult 0.963, HR_mult 0.935) — not ideal over weather
- PHI missing Zack Wheeler (15-day IL shoulder) from rotation — Nola is flying solo as ace; PHI bullpen depleted (Kerkering 15-day IL)
- Nola has modest ERA uplift potential: 9.2 K/9 sim, B- stuff, B command — not a shutdown performance expected
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEGREEN ZONEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 57.1%
-7.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.9 pts
Total
7.5
+14.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →