FINAL: PHI 3 — TEX 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 4.7 - TEX 4.7 (PHI at 50.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
PHI
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITEX
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W4PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.7 — TEX 4.7
Actual
PHI 3 — TEX 8
Pick Results
OVER 7.5totalWIN+0.88u
MacKenzie Gore OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF50%95 mph17% whiff
CU24%82 mph34% whiff
SL12%87 mph38% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
FF33%96 mph17% whiff
ST31%86 mph42% whiff
CH17%88 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
52°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.940 Total: 0.965
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.13ERA
4.08FIP
7.73K/9
3.67BB/9
1.28WHIP
PHI
4.96ERA
4.65FIP
8.57K/9
2.61BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.0% EV
-156
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.9% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-18.2% EV
+100
ML HOME
-12.9% EV
-159
ML AWAY
+11.3% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-10.6% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.9 runs
39.2% win
PHI F5
2.0 runs
42.0% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Corey Seager TEX15.4%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.02x
Kyle Schwarber PHI14.6%
ISO: 0.346 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.02x
Jake Burger TEX13.2%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX7 injured
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bradford SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSOUT
Nabil Crismatt SPOUT
+1 more
PHI8 injured
Orion Kerkering RP15-DAY-IL
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPOUT
Aidan Miller SSOUT
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.3% WR (n=1005)
Model projects 9.41 runs against a 7.5 total (1.91 run over edge) — the largest total gap on the board — driven by twin B-grade starters with moderate strikeout profiles and Citizens Bank Park's homer-friendly environment, partially offset by 9mph inward wind that tempers the projection.
Key Factors
- Model total 9.41 vs market 7.5 — massive 1.91 run over edge; over probability 60.3%
- Both SPs are B-grade: Luzardo (0.654 overall, 10.6 K/9, B+ command) vs Gore (0.559 overall, 10.4 K/9, B command)
- Citizens Bank Park park factor 1.02 — slight hitter-friendly lean; home to Kyle Schwarber (14.6% HR prob, 0.346 ISO)
- Weather: 52.5°F, 12.5 mph blowing IN (tail_wind -8.7), total_mult 0.965 — partially suppresses over edge
- Gore K-rate 26.9% + Luzardo K-rate 28.3% — both swing-and-miss arms that can limit traffic but both give up walks
Risk Factors
- Weather headwind at -8.7 mph could suppress 0.5-0.8 runs from model projection — narrows real edge
- PHI missing Zack Wheeler (15-day IL shoulder) + Orion Kerkering (15-day IL hamstring) — bullpen depth reduced but PHI BP still at 4.96 ERA (below average)
- Over market grade F (43.0% WR, -11.3 units) — systematic loser; min edge requirement 12% and this is at 9.8%
TOTALS VALUEWEATHER IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 50.8%
-18.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.9 pts
Total
7.5
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →