TEX vs TOR prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 5.1 - TEX 3.5. TOR is favored with a 66.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
TOR
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTEX
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.9% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
245
TOR
357
Projected
TOR 5.1 — TEX 3.5
Actual
TOR 5 — TEX 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF44%96 mph21% whiff
CU22%82 mph30% whiff
CH11%87 mph30% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF52%94 mph14% whiff
FS39%84 mph38% whiff
SL9%84 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
60°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.028
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-50.7% EV
-179
F5_ML AWAY
-24.1% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-21.5% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+18.3% EV
+150
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-10.9% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
+9.6% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.8 runs
27.4% win
TOR F5
3.1 runs
57.2% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
George Springer TOR21.3%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR21.2%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX19.1%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Walcott SSDAY-TO-DAY
Evan Carter CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.6% WR (n=9)
TOR's 66.8% home win probability translates to -1.5 run line as 47.3% probability play (per model); market pricing at -147 (59.5% implied on straight ML) offers +18.3% run line edge. High confidence in spread execution despite high win prob indicates market underestimating home field advantage magnitude.
Key Factors
- Run line edge +18.3%: model 47.3% vs market implied ~35%, representing 12-point spread difference
- Home field premium: 66.8% win prob in YELLOW zone (53.6% WR, n=9) — large sample validation lacking
- SP matchup: Gore 9.9 K/9 (slight edge) vs Gausman 8.9 K/9, both B- grades; pitching NOT the driver
- Weather: retractable closed but wind-out scenario adds 2.8% via 1.028 multiplier, favoring high-scoring environment
Risk Factors
- 66.8% home win prob is EXTREME without clear pitcher mismatch — model overconfidence risk. Recommend run line (structural edge) over ML.
- Small zone sample (n=9) for home favorites in 5-10% edge range; regression risk
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 66.8%
+18.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+18.3 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →