FINAL: ATL 4 — TOR 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 4.4 - TOR 3.1 (ATL at 66.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
ATL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLTOR
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
ATL
246
Projected
ATL 4.4 — TOR 3.1
Actual
ATL 4 — TOR 3
Pick Results
ATL MLmlWIN+0.79u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF53%94 mph14% whiff
FS39%84 mph35% whiff
SL8%84 mph32% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL28%83 mph30% whiff
FF25%93 mph16% whiff
SI24%92 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
70°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.106 Total: 1.059
thin air, 13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.42ERA
3.19FIP
10.07K/9
3.47BB/9
1.27WHIP
ATL
2.45ERA
2.84FIP
9.80K/9
2.57BB/9
0.99WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-53.2% EV
-222
F5_ML AWAY
-31.3% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-25.6% EV
+104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+22.9% EV
+180
F5_ML HOME
+19.1% EV
-116
ML HOME
+15.6% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.4 runs
25.7% win
ATL F5
2.5 runs
55.9% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
65.0%
YRFI
35.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Kevin Gausman | Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL24.7%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Kevin Gausman | Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Smith ATL18.8%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Kevin Gausman | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RFDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE55.9% WR (n=192)
Elder (2.7 ERA, 8.0 K/9) significantly outtalents Gausman (3.38 ERA, 8.0 K/9). ATL home ML edge 15.6% lands in GREEN zone. Weather advantage: 13 mph wind blowing out (+5.9% total multiplier, +10.6% HR factor) at Truist, compounding pitcher quality mismatch.
Key Factors
- Elder ERA advantage: 2.7 vs Gausman 3.38 (0.68 ERA gap is substantial at home)
- GREEN zone home ML: 55.9% WR n=192, 59.5% in combo
- Weather tail: 13 mph wind blowing out (+5.9% total mult, +10.6% HR factor) at Truist Park
- Market -121 implies 54.9%, model 66.0% = 11pt edge
Risk Factors
- Gausman (3.38 ERA) still respectable; could contain ATL lineup better than expected
- Wind direction: While out favors power, could also increase strikeout variance
- ATL run environment thin (7.47 total projected) despite pitcher advantage
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONEML VALUEWEATHER IMPACTWIND ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 66.0%
+22.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+22.9 pts
Total
7.5
+5.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →