Who is predicted to win TOR vs BAL on May 31, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, BAL is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is BAL 5.0 - TOR 4.5.

How did TOR vs BAL on May 31, 2026 end?

Final score: BAL 9 - TOR 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

TOR vs BAL Prediction & Picks — May 31, 2026

TOR vs BAL prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 5.0 - TOR 4.5. BAL is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.

BAL

5.0

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

TOR

4.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

56.4%

43.6%

BALTOR

-1.5

Run Line (BAL)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.9% (2,440 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

TOR

346

BAL

357

Projected

BAL 5.0 — TOR 4.5

Actual

BAL 9 — TOR 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Spencer Miles R

TOR

SI36%96 mph20% whiff

CU24%80 mph24% whiff

FF20%96 mph14% whiff

Kyle Bradish R

BAL

SI30%95 mph9% whiff

SL28%87 mph29% whiff

CU22%84 mph42% whiff

Weather Impact

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

70°F5 mph wind

HR: 1.028 Total: 1.015

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

TOR

3.42ERA

3.19FIP

10.07K/9

3.47BB/9

1.27WHIP

BAL

4.28ERA

3.92FIP

9.20K/9

3.74BB/9

1.30WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-40.3% EV

-185

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-16.4% EV

-123

TOTAL OVER 8.5

+8.7% EV

+102

ML AWAY

-7.6% EV

+110

F5_ML HOME

-6.5% EV

-135

F5_ML AWAY

-3.8% EV

+108

First 5 Innings & NRFI

TOR F5

2.5 runs

40.0% win

BAL F5

2.8 runs

45.8% win

F5 Total

5.3

NRFI

56.5%

YRFI

43.5%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.94

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.4

Over 0.5 HR

90%

Over 1.5 HR

68%

No HR

10%

Kazuma Okamoto TOR22.6%

ISO: 0.213 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x

Samuel Basallo BAL21.0%

ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Gunnar Henderson BAL19.0%

ISO: 0.170 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Spencer Miles

0.0 K projected

TOR | K/9: 0.0

Kyle Bradish

0.0 K projected

BAL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

TOR8 injured

Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL

Alejandro Kirk C60-DAY-IL

Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL

Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL

Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL

Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

BAL8 injured

Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL

Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL

Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY

Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL

Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL

Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRAL

Neutral game: Kyle Bradish (BAL, C+ grade) vs Spencer Miles (TOR, B-, better command). Pitcher advantage TOR but home (-129) fairly priced. OVER 8.5 has 8.7% edge but totals disabled and YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) shows no historical profitability. Skip.

Key Factors

Spencer Miles (TOR, B-) command-heavy vs Kyle Bradish (BAL, C+) — TOR slight edge
Market -129 vs model 56% — slight edge to home
OVER 8.5 shows 8.7% edge but zone 50.1% WR
Neutral weather (70.2F, 5.1 mph wind)

Risk Factors

Totals disabled
YELLOW zone no profitability

TOTALS DISABLEDYELLOW ZONEPITCHER SLIGHT EDGE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

BAL 56.4%

-0.2 pts

Run Line