Who is predicted to win TOR vs BOS on June 18, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, BOS is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is BOS 5.4 - TOR 5.2.

How did TOR vs BOS on June 18, 2026 end?

Final score: BOS 3 - TOR 4. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

TOR vs BOS Prediction & Picks — June 18, 2026

TOR vs BOS prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.4 - TOR 5.2. BOS is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.6 total runs.

BOS

5.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.0

TOR

5.2

Projected Score

Win Probability

52.9%

47.1%

BOSTOR

-1.5

Run Line (BOS)

9.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,433 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

TOR

357

BOS

357

Projected

BOS 5.4 — TOR 5.2

Actual

BOS 3 — TOR 4

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Trey Yesavage R

TOR

FF47%94 mph16% whiff

FS32%83 mph41% whiff

SL21%88 mph33% whiff

Sonny Gray R

BOS

FC20%89 mph12% whiff

FF20%92 mph12% whiff

ST18%85 mph35% whiff

Weather Impact

Fenway Park

79°F19 mph wind

HR: 1.008 Total: 1.002

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

TOR

3.92ERA

3.64FIP

9.10K/9

3.46BB/9

1.29WHIP

BOS

3.90ERA

4.18FIP

9.00K/9

3.45BB/9

1.30WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-36.3% EV

-192

TOTAL UNDER 9.0

-22.0% EV

-104

F5_ML AWAY

-6.4% EV

+104

ML HOME

-4.2% EV

-123

F5_ML HOME

-4.2% EV

-130

ML AWAY

-3.1% EV

+106

First 5 Innings & NRFI

TOR F5

2.6 runs

39.4% win

BOS F5

3.0 runs

46.7% win

F5 Total

5.7

NRFI

52.8%

YRFI

47.2%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.06

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.5

Over 0.5 HR

91%

Over 1.5 HR

69%

No HR

Jesús Sánchez TOR24.3%

ISO: 0.118 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x

George Springer TOR20.0%

ISO: 0.120 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x

Willson Contreras BOS16.5%

ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.08x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Trey Yesavage

0.0 K projected

TOR | K/9: 0.0

Sonny Gray

0.0 K projected

BOS | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

TOR8 injured

Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL

Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL

Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL

Daulton Varsho CF10-DAY-IL

Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL

Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

BOS8 injured

Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL

Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL

Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL

Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL

Noah Song SPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST

Nick Sogard 3B10-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRALRED ZONE45.3% WR (n=107)

Game already concluded with TOR 4-3 loss; model showed no ML edge (TOR -3.1% away) and market was correct.

Key Factors

Away ML zone is RED (45.3% WR, n=107) — inherent weakness in away-side ML bets across league
Both pitchers B-/B grades (Gray 7.4 K/9, Yesavage 9.0 K/9) — balanced matchup, no SP edge
Park factor 1.08 (Fenway mild boost), wind blowing slightly in (tail -5) — neutral overall
Model total 10.58 vs market 9.0 (+1.58 edge) but game finished 8 actual runs — under market line

Risk Factors

Away ML inherently weak zone; no edge plays in this zone historical have 45.3% WR
Market implied 48.5% for away side matched model 47%; no exploitable gap

RED ZONE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

BOS 52.9%

Run Line