TOR vs CHC prediction for June 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.5 - TOR 4.8. CHC is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CHC
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TOR
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCTOR
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (2,456 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
357
CHC
467
Projected
CHC 5.5 — TOR 4.8
Actual
CHC 16 — TOR 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF53%94 mph14% whiff
FS39%84 mph38% whiff
SL9%84 mph31% whiff
Ben Brown R
CHC
FF37%96 mph13% whiff
KC36%87 mph42% whiff
SI21%96 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
75°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.001
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-43.2% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.9% EV
-233
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+19.7% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-16.3% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.3% EV
+188
ML AWAY
-9.1% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.4 runs
33.8% win
CHC F5
3.1 runs
51.3% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC26.4%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC20.6%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Ben Brown
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Daulton Varsho CF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=213)
Ben Brown's elite 1.88 ERA vs Gausman's 3.68 is pitcher mismatch favoring CHC, but ML is near fair value; OVER 7.0 is the real edge (19.7%) with model projecting 10.36 runs in neutral-wind park.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Brown 1.88 ERA (ace) vs Gausman 3.68 ERA (middle reliever tier) = 1.8-run advantage favoring CHC pitching
- OVER edge 19.7%: Model 10.36 total vs market 7.0 = 3.36-run gap, strongly suggests market underpriced scoring
- Park factor 1.03 (slightly generous) + neutral wind + 75°F moderate temp: Typical Wrigley conditions, not suppressing
- F5 OVER 3.5 edge 7.9%: First 5 innings should capture pitching advantage neutralization + early scoring
- CHC bullpen 4.04 ERA, quality 1.114: Mid-tier arms allow late-inning scoring risk
Risk Factors
- OVER 19.7% edge is high-edge territory; zone 50.1% WR suggests model may be overvaluing run environment
- Gausman recent form unknown; 3.68 ERA could be inflated by a few bad outings (need recent game logs)
- Brown on recent hot streak? 1.88 ERA could regress; small sample size risk if only 4-5 starts
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.6%
-29.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.9 pts
Total
7.0
+19.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →