FINAL: CWS 6 — TOR 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 3.4 - TOR 3.5 (CWS at 51.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
CWS
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSTOR
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TOR L5CWS W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
245
CWS
135
Projected
CWS 3.4 — TOR 3.5
Actual
CWS 6 — TOR 3
Pick Results
TOR @ CWS NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mason Fluharty L
TOR
FC56%90 mph25% whiff
ST42%82 mph37% whiff
CH0%90 mph0% whiff
Grant Taylor R
CWS
FF54%99 mph26% whiff
CU21%85 mph40% whiff
FC16%95 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
49°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.945 Total: 0.967
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.17ERA
3.46FIP
10.68K/9
3.78BB/9
1.24WHIP
CWS
6.56ERA
5.80FIP
8.50K/9
5.60BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.0% EV
-137
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-32.6% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+26.4% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.0% EV
+114
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.1% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-14.5% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.7 runs
36.0% win
CWS F5
1.9 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
63.5%
YRFI
36.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Munetaka Murakami CWS21.8%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 25.0% | vs Mason Fluharty | Park: 1.01x
Colson Montgomery CWS21.6%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Mason Fluharty | Park: 1.01x
George Springer TOR19.2%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Grant Taylor | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mason Fluharty
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Grant Taylor
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk CDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE58.9% WR (n=113)
CWS market priced at 8.5 OVER (-32.6% edge) when model projects only 6.88 total with 73.6% F5 UNDER confidence; cold (48.9F) + 12.5mph wind IN + both SPs moderate control (Grant Taylor 3.24 ERA but 9.1% BB, Fluharty 11.66 ERA) = run-suppressing environment. Market ignoring weather factor.
Key Factors
- Model UNDER edge: 26.4% (model 65.5% vs market 50% implied); in GREEN zone with 58.9% historical WR
- Weather suppression: 48.9F + 12.5mph headwind reduces ball carry distance by ~0.5 runs estimated; totals multiplier 0.967 (3% suppression factored in)
- Grant Taylor (B+ stuff, 3.24 ERA, 34.1% K rate) gives CWS legitimate shutdown arm despite Fluharty's weakness
- F5 UNDER edge: 15.1% (model 65% vs ~49% market); both teams projected 1.95 & 1.67 runs in first 5
- NRFI probability 61.7% (model edge +9.8%) — first inning scoring environment very suppressed
Risk Factors
- Edge of 26.4% on totals is massive and historically underperforms (calibration shows TOTAL market edges >15% go 60% WR, not 70%+)
- TOR recent form shows they beat Brewers and can score; Kirk injury may reduce offensive ceiling but not eliminate it
- CWS could spoil with one big inning if Taylor struggles
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEGREEN ZONEF5 UNDER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 51.0%
-33.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.0 pts
Total
8.5
+26.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →