TOR vs DET prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - TOR 4.0. TOR is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTOR
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — TOR 4.0
Actual
DET 1 — TOR 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mason Fluharty L
TOR
FC52%91 mph20% whiff
ST40%83 mph40% whiff
CH6%87 mph10% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
FF33%93 mph20% whiff
FS30%87 mph33% whiff
SL23%87 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
77°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.997 Total: 0.995
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.65ERA
3.19FIP
10.05K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
DET
4.40ERA
4.18FIP
9.10K/9
4.42BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.7% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.6% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-128
NRFI NRFI
+9.1% EV
-139
ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+8.0% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.1 runs
41.1% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
66.2%
YRFI
33.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x
Daulton Varsho TOR21.9%
ISO: 0.156 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET17.9%
ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Mason Fluharty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mason Fluharty
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Fernando Perez PDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
+2 more
DET8 injured
Ty Madden SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=263)
Model projects UNDER 8.5 with 59.3% win prob (8.0% edge) driven by pitcher quality mismatch (Fluharty 5.83 ERA vs Mize 3.13 ERA) — yet zone profile shows YELLOW zone (50.4% WR) on all totals; conservative approach warranted given recent total degradation, but F5_UNDER edge at 7.7% is stronger (B+ F5_total market).
Key Factors
- SP mismatch favors DET: Fluharty (5.83 ERA, poor arsenal) vs Mize (3.13 ERA, B-grade stuff) — ~1.5 run swing
- F5 UNDER edge 7.7% vs full-game UNDER 8.0% — F5_total market at B+ grade (55.2% WR) vs total at D grade (51.1% WR)
- Home ML (DET) in GREEN zone: 54.3% WR on 153 tracked bets — home teams typically 2-3% better in zone
- NRFI strong at 66.2% prob with 9.1% edge — both starters generate weak contact early
- YELLOW zone caveat: All totals showing YELLOW (50.4% WR) despite high edges — model likely overconfident
Risk Factors
- Recent total picks underperforming: 30% WR on edges 15-25%, suggesting model overconfidence
- TOR lineup compromised (Kirk C on 10-day IL) — unclear how much this affects offensive output
- Market implied 40.7% for OVER 8.5 — if true WR on totals is 50.4%, model gains only 0.3% edge
PITCHER MISMATCHF5 MARKET PREFERENCEYELLOW ZONE CAUTIONNRFI EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 51.9%
-40.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.7 pts
Total
8.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →