TOR vs DET prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.2 - TOR 3.7. TOR is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
DET
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTOR
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.2 — TOR 3.7
Actual
DET 1 — TOR 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF54%94 mph15% whiff
FS39%84 mph36% whiff
SL7%84 mph22% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF49%92 mph13% whiff
SL26%85 mph27% whiff
KC18%78 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.009
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.50ERA
3.13FIP
10.23K/9
3.36BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.35ERA
4.22FIP
9.00K/9
4.38BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.7% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-24.3% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+15.9% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.9% EV
+136
F5_ML HOME
-8.5% EV
+106
F5 UNDER 4.5
+6.4% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.1 runs
44.5% win
DET F5
1.7 runs
34.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
64.7%
YRFI
35.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 0.97x
Daulton Varsho TOR29.0%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Gage Workman DET20.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Tommy Nance RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Ty Madden SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 54.1%
-42.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.7 pts
Total
7.5
+15.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →