TOR vs NYY prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.2 - TOR 4.3. NYY is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
NYY
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TOR
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTOR
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.2 — TOR 4.3
Actual
NYY 7 — TOR 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Corbin L
TOR
SI34%91 mph3% whiff
SL24%78 mph39% whiff
FC19%86 mph6% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF30%96 mph18% whiff
CH23%86 mph34% whiff
ST20%82 mph48% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
80°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.49ERA
3.14FIP
10.20K/9
3.42BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.58ERA
3.84FIP
8.65K/9
3.53BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.5% EV
-133
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-13.2% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-11.7% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-10.7% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
+8.9% EV
+116
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.1% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.4 runs
37.0% win
NYY F5
2.9 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
54.3%
YRFI
45.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.349 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 1.10x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.348 | Barrel: 19.1% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Amed Rosario NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Patrick Corbin
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Nance RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.9% WR (n=155)
Ryan Weathers (3.24 ERA, B grade, 28.8 K%) significantly outclasses Patrick Corbin (4.24 ERA, C grade, 14.8 K%). NYY is 59.8% win prob model vs 64% market implied — market is overpricing by 4.2% on home ML. Home ML zone is YELLOW (54.9% WR), which is reasonable. NYY beat TOR 7-6 yesterday (tight game). Yankee Stadium has +8% HR factor (Bellinger, Judge both homered yesterday). Weathers is solid lefty, Corbin is struggling. NRFI 8.9% edge, F5 ML 6.3% edge to away. This is a home favorite situation, which zone validates (54.9% WR). Recommend LEAN on NYY ML despite model showing slight market overpricing, because home zone is historically solid.
Key Factors
- Weathers (3.24 ERA, B grade, 28.8 K%) >> Corbin (4.24 ERA, C grade, 14.8 K%) = 1.0 ERA gap
- Yankee Stadium park factor +1.037 (8% HR boost). Judge, Bellinger homered yesterday.
- NYY beat TOR 7-6 yesterday (momentum). Home field advantage validated.
- Model 60.3% vs market 64.1% = market slightly overpricing. But home zone is solid (54.9% WR).
- NRFI 8.9% edge indicates pitchers will struggle early
Risk Factors
- Market already priced NYY at -178; limited value if market correct on home advantage
- Corbin has low K% (14.8%) but low HR risk if controlled. Could surprise.
- TOR injuries affect rotation, but lineup still has Vladmir Guerrero Jr., other bats
PITCHER MISMATCHHOME ADVANTAGERECENCY BIASINJURY IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 59.8%
-7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.1 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →