FINAL: NYY 5 — TOR 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.9 - TOR 5.2 (NYY at 58.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
NYY
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTOR
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
357
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 5.9 — TOR 5.2
Actual
NYY 5 — TOR 4
Pick Results
TOR @ NYY F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.85u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF34%98 mph24% whiff
SL29%89 mph44% whiff
CH12%85 mph55% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
FF40%94 mph22% whiff
SI26%94 mph24% whiff
ST24%84 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
94°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.984
thin air, 12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.58ERA
3.28FIP
10.08K/9
3.39BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.55ERA
3.80FIP
8.77K/9
3.61BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.2% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-28.3% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+16.7% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
+102
F5 OVER 4.5
+11.6% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-8.5% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.8 runs
36.8% win
NYY F5
3.4 runs
50.3% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.8
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
2%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.10x
Ben Rice NYY29.4%
ISO: 0.375 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY24.3%
ISO: 0.320 | Barrel: 18.6% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Tommy Nance RP15-DAY-IL
Ernie Clement 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 58.1%
+3.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.2 pts
Total
8.5
+16.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →