TOR vs NYY prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.5 - TOR 4.5. NYY is favored with a 61.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
NYY
6.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTOR
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.0% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
346
NYY
568
Projected
NYY 6.5 — TOR 4.5
Actual
NYY 1 — TOR 2
Pick Results
Trey Yesavage OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.87u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF49%94 mph19% whiff
FS35%82 mph43% whiff
SL16%88 mph38% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph35% whiff
FC27%94 mph17% whiff
SI19%97 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
81°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.001
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.53ERA
3.28FIP
10.10K/9
3.45BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.53ERA
3.79FIP
8.78K/9
3.63BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.8% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-37.0% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+28.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+11.3% EV
+122
F5 OVER 3.5
+9.7% EV
-147
F5_ML AWAY
-8.6% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.3 runs
31.4% win
NYY F5
3.5 runs
55.7% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.393 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY21.4%
ISO: 0.315 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.10x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY17.7%
ISO: 0.161 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.10x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Nance RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 61.5%
+11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.3 pts
Total
7.5
+28.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →