FINAL: NYY 0 — TOR 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 6.2 - TOR 4.4 (NYY at 61.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
NYY
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTOR
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,221 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 6.2 — TOR 4.4
Actual
NYY 0 — TOR 2
Pick Results
TOR @ NYY F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braydon Fisher R
TOR
SL48%89 mph29% whiff
CU26%82 mph15% whiff
FF18%95 mph19% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF42%94 mph17% whiff
SL28%86 mph38% whiff
CH16%85 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
60°F2 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.52ERA
3.24FIP
10.08K/9
3.39BB/9
1.28WHIP
NYY
3.46ERA
3.74FIP
8.83K/9
3.57BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.3% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-27.4% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+20.2% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-19.8% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+18.4% EV
+146
F5 OVER 4.5
+15.6% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.5 runs
31.3% win
NYY F5
3.8 runs
56.5% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
48.3%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 17.9% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.10x
Cody Bellinger NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braydon Fisher
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Jesus Sanchez RFDAY-TO-DAY
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Nance RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Trent Grisham CFDAY-TO-DAY
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=274)
Model projects +20.2% edge on OVER 8.5 (60.1% model vs 44.6% market implied at 8.5 line), but totals market is DISABLED in calibration (grade C, -33.1 units, 48.4% WR) with 9% max edge cap. This edge exceeds cap by 2.2x and contradicts cold weather at Yankee Stadium (59.5°F, neutral wind, -1.3% to totals). Model overconfidence on high edges (historical worst outcomes). Moneyline also below calibration threshold (1.8% edge vs 8% min).
Key Factors
- TOTALS MARKET DISABLED: Grade C, 48.4% WR (-33.1u, n=374). Do not trust totals edges in this game.
- Cold Yankee Stadium suppression: 59.5°F (COLD), 1.8 mph wind (neutral), total mult 0.997 (-0.3% runs) — contradicts +2.07 run inflation
- Model projects 10.57 runs despite cold weather — internally inconsistent (cold should suppress, not inflate)
- High edge (20.2%) historical: Calibration shows edges >15% have worst outcomes. Model likely overconfident.
- Moneyline edge only 1.8% (below 8% threshold) — not cleared for bet
Risk Factors
- CALIBRATION VIOLATION: Totals edge 20.2% vs cap 9.0% — 2.2x over limit
- Cold weather contradicts run inflation: Model not accounting for temperature suppression
- High edges have worst outcomes historically: 15%+ edge range shows sub-50% WR in calibration analysis
HIGH EDGE WARNINGCALIBRATION VIOLATIONTOTALS DISABLEDWEATHER IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICTSKIP RECOMMENDED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 61.0%
+18.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+18.4 pts
Total
8.5
+20.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →