FINAL: TB 5 — TOR 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.6 - TOR 3.1 (TB at 58.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
TB
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TOR
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TOR L5TB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.6 — TOR 3.1
Actual
TB 5 — TOR 1
Pick Results
TB MLmlWIN+1.29u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eric Lauer L
TOR
FF46%90 mph12% whiff
CH18%83 mph13% whiff
FC17%86 mph28% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI31%92 mph5% whiff
CH27%78 mph29% whiff
FC19%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
82°F12 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.86ERA
3.22FIP
10.85K/9
3.48BB/9
1.28WHIP
TB
4.71ERA
4.55FIP
8.18K/9
4.06BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.8% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-34.6% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.5% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+17.5% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-16.4% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+15.9% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.5 runs
30.6% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.6%
YRFI
35.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
21%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.277 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Eric Lauer | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Eric Lauer | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eric Lauer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
George Springer DHDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Chay Yeager RPDAY-TO-DAY
Yariel Rodriguez RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
TB8 injured
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
TJ Nichols PDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 58.3%
+1.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.1 pts
Total
8.0
+15.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →