TOR vs TB prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.3 - TOR 2.8. TB is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
TB
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TOR
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TOR L5TB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.3 — TOR 2.8
Actual
TB 4 — TOR 3
Pick Results
Yohendrick Piñango OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.06u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF53%94 mph16% whiff
FS41%84 mph38% whiff
SL6%84 mph24% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC35%90 mph22% whiff
FF28%96 mph20% whiff
SI19%96 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
82°F11 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.88ERA
3.17FIP
10.74K/9
3.39BB/9
1.29WHIP
TB
4.57ERA
4.48FIP
8.25K/9
4.03BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.0% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 6.5
-21.3% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 6.5
+14.2% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
-12.1% EV
+112
F5 UNDER 3.5
+11.9% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
+7.6% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.3 runs
31.1% win
TB F5
1.8 runs
45.7% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
66.6%
YRFI
33.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
19%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x
Junior Caminero TB28.2%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB27.6%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Chay Yeager RPDAY-TO-DAY
Javen Coleman PDAY-TO-DAY
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.8% WR (n=235)
Balanced pitcher matchup (2.85 vs 3.35 ERA, both B-grade) in neutral weather with slight TB home advantage; edges are moderate and model-market aligned, leaving no actionable opportunity.
Key Factors
- Tight SP matchup: Drew Rasmussen (TB, 2.85 ERA, B-grade, 26.2% K rate) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR, 3.35 ERA, B-, 22.7% K rate) — only 0.50 ERA gap
- Tropicana Field retractable roof closed (neutral conditions, no wind effects) — baseline run environment
- Bullpen quality comparable: TB (4.57 ERA, 0.985 quality) vs TOR (3.88 ERA, 1.16 quality) — slight TOR advantage (+0.69 ERA) negates by TB home field
- UNDER 6.5 at 14.2% edge is moderate but zone maps to 5-10% bucket — historically performing at 52.8% WR
- Model 57.5% TB, market 58.8% TB — tight alignment indicates no actionable edge
Risk Factors
- Moderate pitcher matchup with home field as tiebreaker — classic neutral game setup
- Model and market aligned within 1.3% — no meaningful divergence to exploit
- 14.2% UNDER edge is serviceable but not compelling enough given recent totals underperformance
NEUTRAL MATCHUPMODEL MARKET ALIGNED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 57.5%
-5.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.7 pts
Total
6.5
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →