TOR vs TB prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.5 - TOR 3.9. TOR is favored with a 52.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TB
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
TB
245
Projected
TB 3.5 — TOR 3.9
Actual
TB 3 — TOR 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Corbin L
TOR
SI34%91 mph3% whiff
SL26%79 mph45% whiff
FC19%86 mph6% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF39%95 mph18% whiff
CH27%87 mph33% whiff
SL24%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.96ERA
3.14FIP
10.77K/9
3.35BB/9
1.31WHIP
TB
4.48ERA
4.46FIP
8.20K/9
4.07BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.7% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-17.1% EV
-143
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.0% EV
+155
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-15.5% EV
-115
ML HOME
-14.5% EV
-139
NRFI NRFI
+10.8% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.1 runs
43.9% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.6%
YRFI
36.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
17%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.103 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonny DeLuca TB30.0%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Patrick Corbin | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Patrick Corbin
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Chay Yeager RPDAY-TO-DAY
Javen Coleman PDAY-TO-DAY
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE39.5% WR (n=7)
McClanahan (3.35 ERA, 23.9% K-rate, B- stuff) is a legitimate SP advantage vs Corbin (3.94 ERA, 19.2% K-rate, C+ stuff), but market prices TB at only -138 (45.9% implied) despite a +5 pitching gap — 50.3% model prob vs 45.9% market implies 4.4% edge. TOR is getting away underdog value in a winnable spot.
Key Factors
- SP quality gap: McClanahan 3.35 ERA / 23.9% K (B-) vs Corbin 3.94 ERA / 19.2% K (C+) = 0.59 ERA swing favoring TB, but market underweights.
- Control advantage: McClanahan 10.6% BB rate vs Corbin 6.7% BB rate — better walk control to TB.
- Recent form bias: McClanahan 3rd consecutive scoreless outing (16.2 IP) creates recency overweighting, legitimately earned but already priced.
- Away underdog +118: Typical market overweight on road teams; TOR has value at +118 implied 45.9% vs model 50.3%.
Risk Factors
- Edge is modest (4.4% prob edge, 9.6% ML edge) — below 10% threshold for elevated confidence. Zone YELLOW (39.5% WR, small n=7 sample).
- Recent form trap: McClanahan hot streak may regress; Corbin could bounce back. Regression toward career mean not captured in zone WR.
- Low-confidence market: Liquid line (-138/-107 spreads) suggests sharp money hasn't identified edge here. Wait for sharper spots.
PITCHER MISMATCH (slightly favors TB)MODEST EDGE (4.4% prob, below high-confidence threshold)AWAY UNDERDOG VALUENEUTRAL WEATHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 52.4%
-17.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.0 pts
Total
7.5
+6.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →