WSH vs ATL prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.9 - WSH 4.7. ATL is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.9 — WSH 4.7
Actual
ATL 1 — WSH 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC30%88 mph18% whiff
FF17%92 mph19% whiff
ST15%80 mph26% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH32%83 mph33% whiff
SI28%90 mph4% whiff
FC21%86 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
80°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.038
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.47ERA
4.56FIP
8.22K/9
3.63BB/9
1.32WHIP
ATL
2.34ERA
2.75FIP
9.91K/9
2.60BB/9
0.98WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.5% EV
-164
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-14.5% EV
-115
ML HOME
-8.8% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.3% EV
+136
F5_ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+5.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.6 runs
38.9% win
ATL F5
2.9 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.146 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Martín Pérez
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Foster Griffin
Michael Harris II ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Foster Griffin
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=284)
ATL OVER 8.5 shows +5.8% edge (model 54.3% vs market ~48%) — modest edge driven by warm weather (80F, wind out) and neutral pitching (Perez 3.08 vs Griffin 4.34 ERA, slight ATL advantage). Market underpricing weather impact slightly.
Key Factors
- Martín Pérez (ATL home SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.08 (solid), 23.3% K-rate, B- grade — competent
- Foster Griffin (WSH away SP) Bayesian ERA: 4.34 (average), 22.8% K-rate, B- grade — slightly weaker
- Weather: 80F, 10.1 mph wind OUT (+0.5 runs naturally). Model accounts for it (9.58 vs market 8.5 = 1.08 edge)
- Truist Park 1.0 factor (neutral). Thin air (1550 DA altitude adds slight HR boost, already in model)
- ATL lineup quality (Olson 30% HR prob, Harris 30%) vs WSH (Abrams 30%, but weaker rest of lineup)
Risk Factors
- OVER market is disabled (F grade, -19.9u loss) — avoid totals bets in general despite apparent edge
- 5.8% edge is tiny after adjusting for zone performance (50% WR means edge is noise). Variance dominates.
- Pitching quality nearly identical (3.08 vs 4.34 is less than 1 ERA apart) — limit confidence
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 54.2%
-8.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.3 pts
Total
8.5
+5.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →