WSH vs ATL prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.9 - WSH 4.7. ATL is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.9 — WSH 4.7
Actual
ATL 1 — WSH 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC30%88 mph18% whiff
FF17%92 mph19% whiff
ST15%80 mph26% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH32%83 mph33% whiff
SI28%90 mph4% whiff
FC21%86 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
80°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.038
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.47ERA
4.56FIP
8.22K/9
3.63BB/9
1.32WHIP
ATL
2.34ERA
2.75FIP
9.91K/9
2.60BB/9
0.98WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.5% EV
-164
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-14.5% EV
-115
ML HOME
-8.8% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.3% EV
+136
F5_ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+5.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.6 runs
38.9% win
ATL F5
2.9 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.146 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Martín Pérez
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Foster Griffin
Michael Harris II ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Foster Griffin
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
ATL OVER 8.5 shows +5.8% edge (model 54.3% vs market ~48%) — modest edge driven by warm weather (80F, wind out) and neutral pitching (Perez 3.08 vs Griffin 4.34 ERA, slight ATL advantage). Market underpricing weather impact slightly.
Key Factors
- Martín Pérez (ATL home SP) Bayesian ERA: 3.08 (solid), 23.3% K-rate, B- grade — competent
- Foster Griffin (WSH away SP) Bayesian ERA: 4.34 (average), 22.8% K-rate, B- grade — slightly weaker
- Weather: 80F, 10.1 mph wind OUT (+0.5 runs naturally). Model accounts for it (9.58 vs market 8.5 = 1.08 edge)
- Truist Park 1.0 factor (neutral). Thin air (1550 DA altitude adds slight HR boost, already in model)
- ATL lineup quality (Olson 30% HR prob, Harris 30%) vs WSH (Abrams 30%, but weaker rest of lineup)
Risk Factors
- OVER market is disabled (F grade, -19.9u loss) — avoid totals bets in general despite apparent edge
- 5.8% edge is tiny after adjusting for zone performance (50% WR means edge is noise). Variance dominates.
- Pitching quality nearly identical (3.08 vs 4.34 is less than 1 ERA apart) — limit confidence
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 54.2%
-8.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.3 pts
Total
8.5
+5.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →