WSH vs BAL prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 5.8 - WSH 4.6. BAL is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
BAL
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
WSH
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALWSH
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
BAL
468
Projected
BAL 5.8 — WSH 4.6
Actual
BAL 4 — WSH 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Littell R
WSH
SL29%88 mph17% whiff
FF28%92 mph10% whiff
FS19%84 mph18% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SI33%95 mph10% whiff
SL27%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%84 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
75°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.031
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.2% EV
-133
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-14.2% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+13.8% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-5.8% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+5.2% EV
-110
ML HOME
-4.8% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.6 runs
33.3% win
BAL F5
3.5 runs
55.3% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
44.1%
YRFI
55.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.36
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Curtis Mead WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x
Samuel Basallo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Zack Littell | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Littell
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jhonkensy Noel RFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE59.4% WR (n=11)
Moderate pitcher mismatch (Bradish 3.93 ERA vs Littell 5.83 ERA) favors BAL home, but market has already priced a -196 favorite; all directional edges are against the model (negative ML edges both ways), F5 OVER is the only positive edge at 13.8% but requires first-inning volatility exposure.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Kyle Bradish 3.93 ERA (B- grade, 8.0 K/9) vs Zack Littell 5.83 ERA (C+ grade, 8.0 K/9 but volatile command) — 1.9 ERA gap = ace vs back-end
- Weather advantage: 75F, 6.9 mph tail wind, 85% humidity at Camden Yards adds ~1% to run scoring but not decisive
- Home team implied at 66.2% vs model 63.1% = 3.1pt overpriced; market respecting BAL home field (+3% park factor)
- F5 OVER 4.5 edge is 13.8% with 65.4% model prob, but early-inning volatility high; main edge in first 5 innings, not full game
- Bullpen quality: BAL 4.34 ERA vs WSH 4.62 ERA — slight edge to home but both pedestrian
Risk Factors
- ML edges both negative (home -4.8%, away -2.5%) suggests market has adjusted correctly; any value requires F5 or prop focus
- Littell recent volatility: 5.83 ERA but 14% BB rate creates unpredictability; BAL lineup may score quick runs early (F5 edge) but not sustainable full game
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 62.8%
+2.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.3 pts
Total
9.0
+5.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →