WSH vs BAL prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.6 - WSH 4.0. BAL is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
BAL
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
WSH
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALWSH
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (2,485 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
BAL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC30%88 mph19% whiff
FF18%92 mph18% whiff
ST15%80 mph29% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF40%94 mph17% whiff
FS20%85 mph15% whiff
SL15%84 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
75°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.031
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.9% EV
-133
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-16.6% EV
-110
ML HOME
-9.9% EV
-196
F5_ML HOME
-9.7% EV
-192
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.8% EV
+112
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+7.6% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.1 runs
36.2% win
BAL F5
2.7 runs
50.4% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
48.5%
YRFI
51.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Foster Griffin | Park: 1.03x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Foster Griffin | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C7-DAY IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 58.5%
-7.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.8 pts
Total
9.0
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →