WSH vs BOS prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.4 - WSH 4.6. WSH is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
BOS
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSWSH
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 4.4 — WSH 4.6
Actual
BOS 6 — WSH 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
SI26%93 mph7% whiff
FF25%93 mph14% whiff
SL20%88 mph17% whiff
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
SI24%90 mph13% whiff
FF22%92 mph17% whiff
FC21%88 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
70°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.029
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-29.1% EV
-141
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.1% EV
+116
ML AWAY
+17.4% EV
+150
ML HOME
-17.3% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-16.5% EV
-185
F5_ML AWAY
+12.5% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.3 runs
40.6% win
BOS F5
2.4 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Miles Mikolas | Park: 1.08x
Jarren Duran BOS29.3%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Miles Mikolas | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS26.9%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Miles Mikolas | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
Mitchell Parker RP15-DAY-IL
Travis Sykora SPDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 50.0%
-21.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.1 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →