WSH vs BOS prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.2 - WSH 6.1. WSH is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
BOS
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSWSH
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
468
BOS
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF35%96 mph17% whiff
KC29%85 mph38% whiff
SI16%96 mph10% whiff
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF36%94 mph22% whiff
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
CH18%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
96°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.998
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.1% EV
-179
ML HOME
-19.4% EV
-145
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.7% EV
+146
ML AWAY
+16.1% EV
+122
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-14.2% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+3.9% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
3.4 runs
50.2% win
BOS F5
2.8 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.20
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x
Curtis Mead WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Dylan Crews WSH29.4%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Mitchell Parker RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP15-DAY-IL
Travis Sykora SPDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 55.4%
-18.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.7 pts
Total
9.5
+3.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →