FINAL: CHC 4 — WSH 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 3.6 - WSH 3.6 (CHC at 51.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
CHC
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5CHC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CHC
246
Projected
CHC 3.6 — WSH 3.6
Actual
CHC 4 — WSH 10
Pick Results
WSH @ CHC NRFInrfiWIN+0.70u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
KC30%86 mph37% whiff
FF30%97 mph21% whiff
SI18%97 mph8% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
FF46%93 mph12% whiff
CH23%79 mph31% whiff
SL14%82 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
50°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.028
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.51ERA
4.72FIP
8.64K/9
4.13BB/9
1.58WHIP
CHC
4.15ERA
3.93FIP
8.98K/9
3.42BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+30.2% EV
+188
F5_ML AWAY
+28.4% EV
+156
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.4% EV
-111
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-26.6% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-22.7% EV
-196
ML HOME
-19.6% EV
-227
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.9 runs
43.1% win
CHC F5
1.7 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
65.9%
YRFI
34.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Michael Busch CHC14.9%
ISO: 0.282 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Cade Cavalli | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC12.5%
ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Cade Cavalli | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Joey Wiemer WSH12.2%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Paxton Schultz RP15-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Joan Adon RPOUT
Tyler Stuart SPOUT
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Seiya Suzuki RF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Austin 1B60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE37.9% WR (n=550)
The model's 30.2% edge on WSH ML at +188 is another catastrophic HIGH_EDGE_WARNING — away underdog bets historically win only 37.9% in this zone (z-score -5.71), and the market correctly prices CHC as a substantial home favorite given WSH's catastrophically depleted rotation (4 SPs on 60-day IL) and Matthew Boyd's superior profile vs Cavalli.
Key Factors
- Away underdog ML with 30.2% edge = RED zone, 37.9% historical WR across 550 bets (z-score -5.71) — structural money pit
- Boyd command grade A- (0.803) vs Cavalli command grade B+ (0.739) — Boyd is more refined but stuff grades similar (C+ vs C+)
- WSH rotation devastated: Josiah Gray, DJ Herz, Trevor Williams all on 60-day IL — Cavalli pitching for a team with no backup plan
- Weather: Wrigley Field, 50.1°F, 12.7 mph wind, open roof — cold conditions subtract ~0.5 runs from total, slight under lean
- CHC bullpen ERA 4.15, WSH bullpen ERA 5.51 — significant bullpen edge for CHC if game goes late
Risk Factors
- 30.2% edge on away underdog = model's absolute worst historical performance zone
- Both starters grade as B/B- tier — neither pitcher is elite, game is genuinely competitive
- Market at -227 appears to be pricing CHC correctly — 30% edge suggests model is simply miscalibrated on this matchup
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 51.3%
-26.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-26.6 pts
Total
7.5
+4.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →